October 06, 2025 - Monday Touch Point
The Austin housing market saw a sharp reversal at the start of October. After a strong August where pendings outperformed last year, September marked the beginning of a slowdown. Pending listings are now down 5.6% year-over-year, while active listings rose 13.7%. The Activity Index—the ratio of pending listings to total activity—dropped to 18.7%, one of the weakest readings of 2025. The market currently sits at 5.86 months of inventory, reflecting a cold-neutral environment. Out of every 100 new listings entering the market, only 52 are being absorbed. That 0.52 ratio underscores that while fewer listings are entering the market, demand is declining even faster.
Supply, Demand, and the “Quits” Factor
What looks like falling inventory is being misunderstood by many. The decline isn’t driven by increased buyer absorption—it’s being driven by sellers quitting the market. Withdrawn and expired listings hit 177 and 98 respectively in just the first six days of October. Over the past 12 months, there have been more than 16,000 total instances of withdrawn or expired listings across the Austin area. In other words, inventory is falling not because of stronger demand but because of fatigue. Sellers are taking homes off the market, hoping conditions will improve in spring 2026. Many of those same listings are now showing up as rentals, putting additional pressure on the leasing market.
Micro vs. Macro Strategy for Sellers
At the macro level, waiting until spring is not an optimal decision. Prices are still trending downward, competition is likely to rise in Q1 2026, and lease supply is surging. At the micro level, however, some specific zip codes and property types may still justify holding. For example, in 78744, one property purchased in 2021 for $440,000 now realistically values between $315K–$320K—a 30% drop in four years. With eight actives and zero pendings in that subdivision, the data clearly shows the property’s best window to sell is now, not later. Agents should be prepared to use hard data to support these conversations. The right strategy today is price realism—refresh the listing in January, come in early and strong, and stay active through the holidays when competition is historically lower.
City-Level Trends: Diverging Price Paths
Across the six-county area, the median sold price for September fell 5.1% month-over-month, and the average sold price dropped 6.1%, a $35,697 decline. Despite more transactions (up 6.3% YoY), buyers are gravitating toward less expensive homes. The City of Austin shows even more disparity. Average list prices fell 7.2% month-over-month from a $970,000 peak, while median active list prices hit a record high—evidence of overpriced inventory lingering on the market. Meanwhile, short sales quietly reached a record 77 active listings, signaling growing financial stress among sellers. Many owners who bought during 2021-2022 peaks now owe 10–15% more than their homes are worth, pushing them toward short sale or default territory.
Rates, Economics, and What’s Ahead
Mortgage rates edged up slightly to 6.625%, while FHA and VA loans remain under 6%. The bond market has seen mild movement amid the ongoing government shutdown. Key upcoming events include the FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday), 10- and 30-year bond auctions, and Friday’s non-farm payroll data—though those reports may be delayed due to the shutdown. Looking forward, expect October’s first half to remain slow, with the possibility of mild improvement mid-month as agents update pendings from ACL weekend. However, November could record a measurable drop in closed sales as the September pending slowdown flows through the pipeline.
Frequently Asked Austin Housing Questions
Why did pending listings drop even though active listings also declined?
The reason pending listings fell while active listings declined is that demand is falling faster than supply. While the number of new listings has slowed, the drop in buyer activity is more pronounced, creating a weaker absorption rate. In the past few weeks, Austin’s new listings-to-pending ratio has fallen to 0.52, meaning only about half of new inventory is being absorbed. Meanwhile, withdrawn and expired listings are up sharply, reflecting seller fatigue, not stronger demand. Inventory is shrinking on paper, but not because homes are selling—it’s because owners are pulling them off the market. This creates a false sense of tightening conditions. When pendings decrease faster than listings, it signals a market losing velocity. Sellers still in the market must price realistically and expect longer days on market, while agents should focus on educating clients that “inventory down” doesn’t mean “prices up.”
What does a 0.52 new-listing-to-pending ratio mean, and how should it influence pricing strategy?
A 0.52 ratio means that for every 100 new listings entering the market, only 52 are going under contract. This shows that supply continues to build faster than demand, keeping pressure on pricing. In practical terms, it means sellers can’t rely on market momentum to move their listings—they must lead with data and price to attract active buyers early. Listings positioned even slightly above market value risk sitting unsold and joining the 48% that add to inventory rather than reduce it. For agents, the ratio should serve as a compass for advising clients: in submarkets below 0.6, buyers have the upper hand and sellers should prepare to negotiate. For buyers, this data signals opportunity—negotiation leverage increases as fewer listings are absorbed. The most successful agents use this ratio as a real-time gauge of market health, adjusting pricing, concessions, and marketing intensity to stay ahead of the curve.
With withdrawns and expireds rising, should sellers stay on the market through the holidays or wait for spring?
Staying on the market through the holidays is often the stronger choice, despite what conventional wisdom suggests. While many sellers assume spring is the “better” season, the data says otherwise. December outperforms November in 18 of the past 20 years precisely because inventory drops and serious buyers stay active. Right now, thousands of listings are being withdrawn, which temporarily reduces competition for those who remain. Sellers who stay listed into December benefit from less clutter and more visibility among motivated buyers. Waiting for spring can backfire, as those withdrawn properties are likely to reenter the market simultaneously, flooding the MLS and increasing competition. However, staying listed only works when pricing is realistic and presentation strong. Overpriced or stale listings won’t suddenly perform better later—they need a refreshed strategy now. For most sellers, the right approach is to hold steady through year-end, adjust pricing if necessary, and relaunch with renewed energy early January, before the spring surge begins.
Why are short sales increasing, and what does that mean for today’s market?
Short sales are rising because a growing number of homeowners owe more than their homes are worth, especially those who bought near the 2021–2022 market peak. As prices have normalized and affordability has eroded, some owners are facing negative equity even if they’re current on payments. Many of these potential short sales are invisible in MLS data because agents don’t always disclose them under “special listing condition,” and servicers often won’t approve short sales until payments are missed. This creates a shadow layer of distressed inventory. For sellers, the rise in short sales signals that pricing power has weakened; for buyers, it offers potential opportunity but comes with delays and uncertainty. Buyers pursuing short sales should be prepared for longer timelines and ensure their contracts include clear contingencies protecting earnest and option money. The broader takeaway is that distress is returning quietly—not in foreclosures yet, but in early-stage financial strain. That underscores how vital it is to track equity positions and counsel clients proactively before they hit that wall.
How do I decide whether to sell now or wait at the zip-code or subdivision level?
The decision to sell now or wait depends on what’s happening in your property’s specific lane—not just the broader zip code. A seller should evaluate three critical factors: absorption rate, months of inventory, and activity index. If your neighborhood shows declining pendings, rising inventory, and an activity index below 20%, the data points to continued downward pressure on pricing—selling sooner may prevent a larger loss later. Conversely, if your submarket has less than two months of inventory and multiple active pendings, holding could make sense, especially if the property fits a price band with steady absorption. The key is to separate market perception from actual math. For example, in 78744, even though the overall area shows neutral inventory levels, a closer look reveals some subdivisions with eight actives and zero pendings—clear signs of imbalance. Sellers in those conditions risk chasing the market down if they wait. The smarter move is to act on verified data, not headlines, and align strategy with the absorption rate of your property’s immediate competition.
